Two Great Talks on Government and Technology

If you are getting ready to travel next week, you might want to have a couple of good talks/podcasts handy for the trip. Here are two that I enjoyed, on the topic of government and technology.

The first is about how technology can help governments. Ben Orenstein of “Giant Robots Smashing Into Other Giant Robots” discusses Code for America with Catherine Bracy. Catherine recounts some ups and downs of CfA’s partnerships with cities throughout America and internationally. CfA fellows commit a year to help local governments with challenges amenable to technology. One great example that the podcast discusses is a tool for parents in Boston to see which schools they could send their kids to when the city switched from location-based school assignment to allowing students to attend schools throughout the city. (Incidentally, the school matching algorithm that Boston used was designed by some professors in economics at Duke, who drew on work for which Roth and Shapley won the Nobel Prize.)

The second talk offers another point of view on techno-politics: when government abuses technology. Steve Klabnik‘s “No Secrets Allowed” talk from Golden Gate Ruby Conference discusses recent revelations regarding the NSA and privacy. In particular he explains why “I have nothing to hide” is not an appropriate response. The talk is not entirely hopeless, and includes recommendations such as using Tor. The Ruby Rogues also had a roundtable discussing Klabnik’s presentation, which you can find here.

Other recommendations are welcome.

Political Forecasting and the Use of Baseline Rates

As Joe Blitzstein likes to say, “Thinking conditionally is a condition for thinking.” Humans are not naturally good at this skill. Consider the following example: Kelly is interested in books and keeping things organized. She loves telling stories and attending book clubs. Is it more likely that Kelly is a bestselling novelist or an accountant?

Many of the “facts” about Kelly in that story might lead you to answer that she is a novelist. Only one–her sense of organization–might have pointed you toward an accountant. But think about the overall probability of each career. Very few bookworms become successful novelists, and there are many more accountants than (successful) authors in the modern workforce. Conditioning on the baseline rate helps make a more accurate decision.

I make a similar point–this time applied to political forecasting–in a recent blog post for the blog of Mike Ward’s lab (of which I am a member):

One piece of advice that Good Judgment forecasters are often reminded of is to use the baseline rate of an event as a starting point for their forecast. For example, insurgencies are a very rare event on the whole. For the period January, 2001 to August, 2013, insurgencies occurred in less than 10 percent of country-months in the ICEWS data set.

From this baseline, we can then incorporate information about the specific countries at hand and their recent history… Mozambique has not experienced an insurgency for the entire period of the ICEWS dataset. On the other hand, Chad had an insurgency that ended in December, 2003, and another that extended from November, 2005, to April, 2010. For the duration of the ICEWS data set, Chad has experienced an insurgency 59 percent of the time. This suggests that our predicted probability of insurgency in Chad should be higher than for Mozambique.

I started writing that post before rebels in Mozambique broke their treaty with the government. Maybe I spoke too soon, but the larger point is that baselines are the starting point–not the final product–of any successful forecast.

Having more data is useful, as long as it contributes more signal than noise. That’s what ICEWS aims to do, and I consider it a useful addition to the toolbox of forecasters participating in the Good Judgment Project. For more on this collaboration, as well as a map of insurgency rates around the globe as measured by ICEWS, see the aforementioned post here.

A Chrome Extension for XKCD Substitutions

This morning’s XKCD had some fun suggestions for replacing key phrases to make news articles more fun:

Regular readers may recall my Doublespeak Chrome extension, which works on the same principle. In short order, I was able to create a new app, XKCDSub, that works the same way: install the extension, and when you click its icon it will open your current page in a new tab with the phrases replaced. Here is an example of the extension in action on Elon Musk’s Wikipedia page:

elon

The code is open source on Github. You can find it in the Chrome webstore here.